Wednesday, September 27, 2017

Tale of Two America's - West

-->Population change by age segment, 2010-->2016
Pacific...under 65yr/old population +1.3m, 65+yr/old population +1.6m
Mountain West...under 65yr/old population +0.9m, 65+yr/old population +0.8m
Break out of Colorado and Utah population growth deceleration vs. remainder of Mountain West.

Under 65yr/old vs. Over 65yr/old Population Growth
Charts below show the change in over vs. under 65yr/old population plus total change, by state from 2010-->2016.  All Western states are among the upper 30 states demographically with growing under and over 65yr/old populations...except for New Mexico which is among the 10 worst states.

Mid 10 states...on average, these states added 0.4 under 65yr/olds per added 65+yr/old.
Next 10 (ok, 11) states...on average, these states added 0.8 under 65yr/olds per added 65+yr/old.
Top 10 (ok, 9) states...on average, these states added 1.8 under 65yr/olds per added 65+yr/old.
Population Growth state
-->Employment period, by state
Pacific job growth, at the state level, decelerates marginally.
Mountain West job growth slows in Colorado and Utah, job growth collapses in remainder of Mountain West.

-->Population vs. Employment...broken down by primary city(s) vs. remainder of state.
-San Francisco, Los Angeles, San Diego vs. California (x-SF/LA/SD)
Population - California cities represent the bulk of population growth.
Employment - Job growth rises in LA/SF/SD during current cycle, falls by nearly 50% statewide (excluding LA/SF/SD).
-Portland/Seattle vs. Oregon/Washington (x-PDX/SEA)
Population - PDX/Seattle represent bulk of population growth.
Employment - PDX/SEA job growth marginally decelerates during current cycle, statewide (excluding PDX/SEA) sees 60% reduction in job growth.

-Denver / Salt Lake City vs. Colorado / Utah (x-DEN/SLC)
Population - DEN/SLC exhibit balanced population growth, statewide (x-DEN/SLC) growing slightly older.

Employment - Growth in employment nearly doubles in SLC/DEN in most recent cycle, falls 55% statewide (excluding SLC/DEN).
-Phoenix vs. Arizona (x-PHX)
Population - PHX has nearly all of states population growth, except for a split of the growth in 65+yr/olds.
Employment - PHX job growth down over 80% in this current cycle, statewide (x-PHX) the job losses of the last recession have not been recouped.
-->Property Values...regionally at record highs (according to Census based on repeat sales of 6 million homes nationwide)...vs. Case-Shiller showing all cities (but Los Angeles) at new highs.
Pacific region vs. PDX, SEA, LA, SF residential price index...All four cities had different rates of appreciation during housing bubble #1, however based on indexing from 1991, all four show the same appreciation now.

Property Values...year over year changes.

-->Housing Creation